Friday, February 6, 2009

Forex Day Trading and Scalping Systems - A Great Way to Wipe Your Trading Account Quickly

I see day traders and forex scalpers selling trading systems online claiming profits but look at the track record closely and you will see, there not real at all - In fact they have never been traded and the profits are paper ones - they all have this disclaimer on them....

"CFTC RULE 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown".

Umm, so they all have the above on which means, they have never been traded in the brutal hard world of forex trading and of course, trading without knowing the prices ( rather than simulating backwards knowing them) is the real world of trading and much harder.

Day trading doesn't work however marketing organizations create great copy to sell the concept and the nave or lazy trader, thinks he is going to make a regular income, with 90% accuracy etc.

He sits back with a cold beer and thinks he will never have to work hard again, of course he gets rewarded but - with an equity wipe out.

When I was a broker, we loved day traders - why?

As you probably know most brokers take the other side of the trade, so they win when the client losses.

No day trader EVER won when I was there and I saw maybe 20,000 client accounts. Also, the other myth is forex brokers hunt day traders stop - nope. They don't need to bother, the day trader always has his stop within normal random volatility so the market takes him out, the broker doesn't need to help.

So why doesn't day trading work?

Think about the huge mass of people who trade each day and they all have different skills, trading systems, and aims and to think, you can work out what this diverse group, of emotional beings is going to do, in a few hours is futile and dommed to failure.

All volatility is random in daily time frames so how on earth can you get the odds on your side?

You cant - so don't attempt it.

If you want to win at forex trading, learn how to trade longer term and you will find the data helps you calculate the odds and gives you a chance to win and win big gains.

If you want to win at forex trading, you need to trade the odds - so forget day trading and scalping, trade longer term and enjoy currency trading success.

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Thursday, February 5, 2009

Forex Day Trading- Two Step Trend Analysis

If you approach forex day trading by just looking at the 5 minute and 15 minute charts there is a strong possibility your account will evaporate sooner rather than later.

In order to get a feel for the market and an indication of the current trend it is necessary to do an analysis by looking at multiple charts on different time frames starting with higher level charts first.

Rather than having the charts cluttered with numerous indicators and signals which can cause signal paralysis, I recommend just two:

1. MACD (with default settings)

2. 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average)

Now examine your charts using a top down approach:

  • Daily
  • 4 Hour
  • 1 Hour

As you check each chart take note of these two factors:

  1. Has MACD crossed down or up and is it above or below the water line?
  2. Is price above or below the 200 EMA?

While it is not crucial to have them all lined up on these three time frames for successful forex day trading, if you want to be a cautious trader and go for high probability trades then certainly MACD on the 4 hour chart and 1 hour chart should be in agreement as also should price in relation to the 200 EMA.

The daily chart can be useful in seeing the larger picture and for noting key levels of support and resistance. They stand out on a daily chart so if price is within 100 pips of a crucial level of support or resistance as seen on the daily chart, make a note of the figure.

Then scale down to the lower time frames and see if this level matches with other indicators such as pivot points or Fibonacci levels.

Once you have done this groundwork, NOW you can look at the 15 minute and 5 minute charts for a suitable entry point.

Remember, for successful Forex day trading you need to adhere to the No. 1 commandment: Buy The Dips and Sell the Rallies!

So avoid chasing the market and going with the flow. Instead, wait for price to come the level you want, set your entry order, and let price pull you into the trade.

The Danger With Lower Time Frames

Just concentrating on the 15 minute and 5 minute charts will not give you the bigger picture. You could see what looks like a perfectly good trade and set your stops and limits only to find you get blown out within a few minutes.

By looking at the higher time frame you would probably have seen you were close to a key support or resistance level and either not gone into the trade or adjusted your stops and limits accordingly.

For the novice, Forex day trading can involve a huge learning curve. Include this simple daily top down analysis approach to your trading and protect yourself against making trades you wish you didn't!

Click here to learn how to use the 200 EMA in a simple yet powerful way:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/Advisor/200EMA-forex-strategy.htm

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http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/Candle-Chart-Patterns

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A newly sold home at a new housing subdivision is seen in San Marcos, California in this August 20, 2007 file photo. U.S. mortgage rates jumped to their highest levels since December in the latest week, complicating government efforts to bring mortgage rates down to levels that will spur demand and help the hard-hit housing market begin to recover. (Mike Blake/Reuters)Reuters - U.S. mortgage rates jumped to their highest levels since December in the latest week, complicating government efforts to bring mortgage rates down to levels that will spur demand and help the hard-hit housing market begin to recover.

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